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    日期:2024-04-23
    2012年3月18日 ... ... 貝氏定理. 本文將介紹貝氏定理(Bayes' theorem) 的推導與實例。 ... 在例題中, 過去的知識$\Pr(D)$ 被稱為事前機率(prior), $\Pr(D|P)$ 被稱為事後 ......
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    日期:2024-04-19
    贝氏定理: 结合事前机率和条件机率,以导出事後机率的过程。 编辑摘要 ... 先了解 母体的特性後,再设法求出某一事件出现的机率,此种方法称为事前机率。 事後机率:...
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    日期:2024-04-22
    If then . If , then . This can be interpreted to mean that hard convictions are insensitive to counter-evidence. The former follows directly from Bayes' theorem. The latter can be derived by applying the first rule to the event "not " in place of "", yiel...
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    日期:2024-04-20
    Bayes' Theorem: definitions and non-trivial examples. Bayes' theorem is a direct application of conditional probabilities ... Bayes' theorem states that P(H k |A) = P(A|H k) P(H k) / ∑ i P(A|H i) P(H i), where the sum is taken over all i = 1, ..., n. We s...
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    日期:2024-04-26
    Bayes’ theorem was the subject of (http://www.yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes). The essay is good, but over 15,000 words long — here’s the condensed version for ... Oddly useful! I’ve been reading Bayes explanations for a while, and this one really hit home ...
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    日期:2024-04-20
    I think this is due to Yudkowsky's focus on AI theory; an AI can't use discretion to choose the right method unless we formalize this discretion. Bayes' theorem is applicable to all inference problems, while frequentist methods have domains of applicabili...
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    日期:2024-04-25
    (This post is elementary: it introduces a simple method of visualizing Bayesian calculations. In my defense, we've had other elementary posts before, and they'v ... It is possible. However I am not sure that the elementary posts have higher average qualit...
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    日期:2024-04-20
    Die Bayessche Statistik ist Zweig der modernen Statistik, der mit dem Bayesschen Wahrscheinlichkeitsbegriff und dem Bayesschen Satz Fragestellungen der Stochastik untersucht. Der Fokus auf diese beiden Grundpfeiler begründet die „bayesianische“ Statistik ...